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Insights
In 1999 and 2000, the venture-capital (VC) industry—flush with Internet success stories and inflows of capital—was captive to greed and smitten with its own success. Shortly thereafter, however, hard economic realities punctured the industry's euphoria. The VC industry has been both the leading beneficiary of the tremendous inflation of stock-market wealth and a victim of the subsequent drops in the public and private stock markets. As a result, the VC industry has begun to look inward, reevaluating past practices and identifying ways to ensure more stable future operations. This self-examination is bringing a return to more disciplined, traditional investment processes that rely on thorough research and vetting of companies before funding. VC operations in the not-so-new economy meld the dynamism of the new economy with the more disciplined investment principles of the old economy. Moreover, many people who once viewed the new economy as an anomaly now recognize that it was part of a historical venture-capital cycle of expansion, peaking investment, downturn, and retrenchment. Despite the painful losses and lower financial returns that accompany the current retrenchment, the correction will be healthy for the VC industry, for corporate investors and partners, and for the emerging companies that receive VC investments. Author: Geoffrey T. Wilson. 16 pages. Index Keywords: Corporate Finance; Economic Trends; Finance; Innovation; Technology Trends.
Information from the Human Genome Project (HGP)—in combination with new technologies and advances in computing power—is transforming biology and medicine. Just in the past three years, data submissions to HGP's GenBank database have given the research community vast amounts of gene-sequencing data to work with. The next step is to determine the roles that genes play in health and disease—a task that will be manageable only if researchers have automated, high-throughput technologies that are up to the massive computational task. In the near term, standardization issues will also be a concern, with end users trying to make intelligent choices from myriad technologies and vendors struggling to remain competitive and avoid technology obsolescence. Advances in informatics infrastructure, informational content, biochips, protein synthesis, systems biology, drug discovery and development, and proteomics are all on the horizon and likely to filter into the genomics industry. No one doubts that the genomics industry has a dramatic opportunity to create new products and services in health care, agriculture, environment, and energy—not to forget applications in materials, sensors, computing, and nanotechnology. Nonetheless, end users want to see clear cost-performance relationships before widely adopting new technologies and methodologies. Author: Andrew Broderick. 16 pages. Index Keywords: Biotechnology; Genetic Engineering; Information Technology; Medical Research; Pharmaceutical Industry; Technology Trends.
As the number and variety of computing devices increase, desktop graphical user interfaces and browsers will be replaced by multimodal user interfaces (MMUIs) that support the specific input and output interface requirements and limitations that these different devices have. The successful implementation of MMUI systems will enable easier and more natural use, control, and navigation of computing systems. MMUIs will revolutionize the manner in which humans and computers interact, enabling a more synergistic relationship between the natural and the artificial. Developments in user interface technologies will also require developments that smooth machine-machine interaction to the point that many computer functions will happen in the absence of human manipulation or command of the system. MMUIs are likely to penetrate the market first in closed, controlled environments in which the value-added features will justify the financial commitment to the development of the architecture, hardware, and common semantic language. Such environments include the medical field, three-dimensional product design, drug development, and perhaps customer service. However, other futuristic applications such as virtual sports, games, and exercise; interactive television and services; and human brain-machine interface control of artificial limbs and physiological functions do exist. In a world in which computing power, bandwidth availability, and component miniaturization are all improving at breakneck speed, constraints on commercialization opportunities for computing and networking technology innovations are likely to crop up in other non-technical areas. A lack of appropriate human-computer interfaces is likely to be an important gating factor that could restrain the commercial success of new computing and networking technologies. Developments in the interface arena bear close scrutiny by anyone developing information technology strategy. Author: Lindsay C. Wilson. 11 pages. Index Keywords: Information Technology; Technology Development; Computer Networks; Computer Software.
Now that the draft of the human genome is complete, life-sciences researchers are beginning the long trek to commercial application of the vast amounts of genomic information becoming available. Today, the genomics infrastructure is embryonic at best. The industry awaits further development of the many components of commercial progress, including improved computational and analytical tools and techniques, standards, regulatory guidelines, and public understanding and acceptance of the new field of genomics and its implications. Just as wide use of the Internet and the World Wide Web lagged 25 years behind development of the central enabling protocol, so could a considerable time lag occur between access to new genomic information and realization of viable products and services. Nonetheless, players in the research community, the pharmaceutical industry, health care, agriculture, and other fields are well aware of the potential to improve people's health and quality of life through genomics—and, not incidentally, to reap large profits. As a result, they are pushing ahead with high-throughput-screening technologies and other drug-discovery tools, studies of gene function, and exploration of business models for the future. In genomics, building a "killer infrastructure" is currently more important than finding a killer application. Author: Andrew Broderick. 16 pages. Index Keywords: Biotechnology; Health Care; Information Management; Knowledge Management; Medical Research; Pharmaceutical Industry.
Only marketing hype a few short years ago, network delivery of audio and video for enterprise applications is finally taking hold among large corporations. Some 90 percent of U.S. Fortune 1000 companies are streaming their earnings announcements in the form of audio and some video to any interested party with a personal computer and an Internet connection. More tellingly, a smaller but growing percentage are using Webcasting for mission-critical applications such as launching products and making corporate announcements. And despite obstacles of budget, staffing, and competition for network resources, project teams in a dozen or so pioneering enterprises have successfully brought Internet protocol streaming "inside the firewall," using it for such applications as internal announcements and sales training. Once beyond a limited pilot phase, these early adopters are finding a strong reception among employees and executives, who value the flexibility and cost savings the technology makes possible. They are also exploring ways to extend this capability out to partners (distributors and suppliers) and customers using secure Internet links to provide service and product training and collaboration. Besides proving that the technology is affordable and practical for corporate use, the early adopters offer valuable experiences and a general roadmap to companies that are considering adopting streaming but have been concerned about the risk of proving a new technology. Author: David Rader. 13 pages. Index Keywords: Communications; Electronic Commerce; Information Technology; Internet Technologies; Intranet; Knowledge Management; Video Technology. Watch-List Spotlight: Privacy B-I-P's watch list identifies defining forces that are transforming the business environment. This selection from the watch list of defining forces is privacy. Privacy What to do—and not do—with all that data The widespread implementation of computer and networking technologies has created unprecedented capabilities for tabulating, tracking, disaggregating, and analyzing data of all kinds. The application of these capabilities to information about customers, consumers, and citizens presents the potential for dramatic new efficiencies in marketing and customer service. It also creates the potential for a serious consumer backlash as implementations of the capabilities push the envelope concerning consumers' traditional understandings of privacy. Navigating the inevitable changes in cultural concepts of privacy will be one of the major challenges for businesses in the coming decade. B-I-P's recent publications on privacy-related topics include:
News The summaries below describe current activities and programs not included in the B-I-P membership but of potential interest to members. Washington, D.C., eLearning Forum Debuts The eLearning Forum established residency in Washington, D.C., in July with the kickoff of a planned series of meetings. Hosted by the Learning-on-Demand (LoD) program of SRI Consulting Business Intelligence, together with federal cohosts National Institute of Standards and Technology and Advanced Distributed Learning (ADL) Co-lab, the gatherings aim to bring corporate, federal, and education-sector eLearning professionals together to map industry opportunities and shape policy objectives for online learning. Attendees heard presentations overviewing corporate eLearning trends, the growing federal-government involvement in fostering eLearning technologies, and the key role played by ADL as a facilitator of technology standards. For more information about the LoD program, telephone: +1 650 859 4600; e-mail: info@future.sri.com. VALS™ Announces New Partnership with Mediamark Research SRIC-BI's VALS™ Program has recently announced a partnership with Mediamark Research, Inc. (MRI), New York, the leading provider of U.S. consumer product and media data. MRI conducts in-home surveys about product and brand use and exposure to advertising media among a representative sample of 25 000+ adults each year. Since the late 1970s, VALS has helped many companies identify the consumer groups that have the greatest affinity with their products so they can most effectively design, position, advertise, and distribute their products and serve their customers. VALS explains why consumers buy what they buy. The resulting VALS/MRI database will sharpen the ability of new product designers, corporate marketers, media and advertising professionals to pinpoint their target and effectively reach their customers. For more information about the VALS program, telephone: +1 650 859 4600; e-mail: info@future.sri.com. Current Watch-List B-I-P's scanning and research processes identify areas on the periphery of your business's focus area that constitute potential opportunities or threats. The areas that we decide bear watching go on B-I-P's watch list of defining forces that are transforming the business environment. Current watch-list topics include:
The Bulletin will periodically highlight each defining force, listing related B-I-P publications. |
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