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Business Intelligence Program
Bulletin
No. 312
November/December 2002
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  Reports
    R860 - Collaborative Global Logistics
  Insights
    D02-2406 - eLearning and Enterprise Applications
D02-2407 - Pervasive Computing in Japan
D02-2408 - Genomics-Industry Update: 2002
D02-2409 - 3G-Wireless Update: An Early Market Lead for CDMA2000
  News
    Seasonal Close
Next-Generation Technologies: A New SRIC-BI Service
New Reports from Digital Futures
  Current Watch-List



 Reports 

Collaborative Global Logistics View summary
R860 Download complete document

Expanding value through close-knit technology and logistics relationships

Logistics—the cost-effective storage and movement of materials, parts, and finished goods between points—is a key component of the supply chain. Not only is logistics expensive—with logistics expenditures accounting for some $1 trillion of the U.S. GDP and perhaps $2.5 trillion to $3.5 trillion worldwide—but it plays a crucial role in satisfying a firm's customers, both within the firm (such as production lines) and without. Customers want and demand that companies produce and deliver products exactly to their specifications and have little tolerance for shipping delays, misroutings, errors in documentation, customs penalties, cost surprises, or breakdowns in communication. Moreover, logistics challenges increasingly play out in a global context. Firms' ability to compete in the trade-intense world of the twenty-first century will depend heavily on their ability to design, execute, and manage logistics across multiple international borders, answering to many local authorities and ever-changing rules. As firms have spread important business processes around the world in an attempt to lower costs, improve quality, and move closer to markets, the pressure on logistics personnel and systems has only increased. Indeed, the logistics structures of most companies today are not sophisticated enough to handle the tremendous volume or complexity of trade that analysts expect to see in the years to come. As a result, shippers are increasingly willing to form close relationships, and even partnerships, with external global-logistics providers. In turn, the providers themselves are increasingly able to provide the technology, consulting, reengineering, and process-management capabilities that shippers will require in the twenty-first century. Author: William W. Goldsborough. Index Keywords: Air Transport; Distribution; Electronic Commerce; Freight; Global Operations; International Trade; Logistics; Transport. Executive Contacts and Report Recipients will receive this document automatically.



 Insights 

eLearning and Enterprise Applications View summary
D02-2406 Download complete document

One of the key challenges currently facing directors or managers of learning who are trying to develop eLearning strategies is to decide which of the many small eLearning vendors to use and trust in an industry in which the largest "pure player" has only some 5 percent of the market. Few of these small vendors can provide end-to-end solutions that combine learning management, learning-content management, content, and collaboration tools. This study examines the growing role of large enterprise-applications (EA) providers in the eLearning market as the eLearning industry experiences consolidation. The entry of EA vendors into the eLearning industry stems in part from from eLearning customers' frustration with the problems of integrating disparate eLearning components and increasingly of integrating eLearning tightly with broader enterprise applications. The capabilities and resources of EA companies give them a substantial competitive advantage over much smaller eLearning vendors. However, this advantage does not necessarily mean that these players will gain quick and painless dominance of the eLearning industry. Many customers who have suffered through the considerable pains and cost overruns of enterprise-resource-planning implementations may raise concerns about these players' entry into eLearning. Customers are likely to benefit in a number of ways, however, if EA players take a significant position in eLearning. Those benefits include the closer alignment of eLearning with work processes, knowledge management, business intelligence, and other enterprise functions. Authors: Eilif Trondsen, Kristian Folkman, David Norheim. 18 pages. Index Keywords: Education; Human Resources; Knowledge Management; Quality Management; Training.


Pervasive Computing in Japan View summary
D02-2407 Download complete document

Japan is more active than either the United States or Europe in the research and development of consumer applications of pervasive computing. Moreover, consumer applications of pervasive computing—the convergence of information technologies into a networked computing environment that is always on, always available, and unobtrusive—are likely to emerge more rapidly in Japan than they will in the United States for a combination of reasons: ongoing research at Japanese companies and universities, the greater strength of the mobile-telephony infrastructure next to the fixed broadband Internet infrastructure, and the nature of the consumer population and Japan-based consumer-electronics companies. In academic research circles, three areas are receiving particular attention: smart spaces, augmented reality, and software agents. These areas have potential for early returns in gaming and other consumer applications. Japanese corporations and consumers are also receptive to pervasive computing because of the existing and continually improving network infrastructure, particularly the cellular network. Furthermore, demand for consumer applications of early-stage pervasive computing products and services will be greater in Japan and most of Asia than it will be in Europe and North America. One application with particular potential is smart homes. Japanese consumer-electronics companies in particular need to note the potential of pervasive computing and perhaps invest in new consumer applications. For multinational-network, telecommunications, and electronics companies, establishing operations in Japan is a means of gaining access to this excellent test bed for new pervasive-computing products and services. Author: Carolyn E. Sleeth. 6 pages. Index Keywords: Asia; Computer Networks; Consumer Behavior; Consumer Electronics; Japan.


Genomics-Industry Update: 2002 View summary
D02-2408 Download complete document

Genomics will transform scientific research and product research and development, and it will ultimately change people's everyday lives through new medicines, diagnostics, foods, and materials. But how companies will translate these bright prospects into thriving commercial markets is unclear, because many unknowns hover over this still-new science. Firms need to find ways to convert science into knowledge discovery and to develop technologies that provide attractive cost/performance benefits. Moreover, scientific research and new-product development in genomics take place within a larger social and political context, and many legal, ethical, and social issues will determine society's ultimate acceptance of genomics-based products and services. Legal authorities need to determine who owns the rights to genetic resources and intellectual property. And scientists and decision makers will increasingly need to work together to encourage public involvement in policy making, develop effective legal and regulatory frameworks, and generally create the infrastructure necessary for a genomics-based consumer marketplace. In the meantime, genomics players need to prepare for long development timelines and develop strategies for weathering the uncertainty likely to accompany genomics technologies as they navigate their way to market. In turn, once products reach the market, the high costs of commercialization will inhibit market adoption and will require considerable staying power as the market builds and as an effective infrastructure takes shape. Author: Andrew Broderick. 17 pages. Index Keywords: Biotechnology; Intellectual Property; Medical Research; Pharmaceutical Industry; Research and Development.


3G-Wireless Update: An Early Market Lead for CDMA2000 View summary
D02-2409 Download complete document

Since 2001 and early 2002, global cellular operators have been deploying upgrades to their second-generation network infrastructures that promise subscribers faster wireless data connections, multimedia service access, and in some cases, increased capacity for voice. These upgrades, or 2.5G (second-and-a-half–generation) systems, use one of two evolving wireless-data-network modification variants, which use one or the other of two primary global cellular-transmission standards: GSM (global system for mobile communications) and CDMA (code-division multiple access). Wireless operators hope that offering wireless data services will generate new revenue to recover the cost of next-generation licenses, continue infrastructure improvements, and fund network buildout for planned third-generation services. A combination of factors—wireless data-transmission performance, demand, pricing schemes, and compelling applications—will eventually determine the winner in the market for next-generation cellular wireless-data services. Robust and reliable network performance will be critical to win the North American competition between GSM/general packet radio system and CDMA wireless operators. Demand, pricing schemes, and compelling content will also play a role in North America. Wireless operators must be able to integrate wireless-data solutions into readily usable and affordable packages for subscribers. They must also partner with content aggregators to provide high-value content that is accessible over potentially problematic networks and that is readable on small screens. All these elements must come together to create the demand that operators hope to see. Authors: David E. Benson and Carolyn E. Sleeth. 13 pages. Index Keywords: Asia; Mobile Communications; North America; Telecommunications.



 News 

Seasonal Close
The staff of SRI Consulting Business Intelligence (SRIC-BI) wishes you and yours a very happy holiday season. We look forward to working with you in the coming year. SRIC-BI will close from Wednesday, 25 December, through Wednesday, 1 January, for the holidays. The Tokyo office will close from Monday, 30 December, through Friday, 3 January.

The summaries below describe current activities and programs not included in the B-I-P membership but of potential interest to members.

Next-Generation Technologies: A New SRIC-BI Service
Recognizing that advanced technology developments are a major competitive force in today's global marketplace, SRIC-BI has launched a new multiclient service: Next-Generation Technologies (NGT). Using methodologies similar to those in SRIC-BI's Explorer Technology Maps, NGT examines technologies that SRIC-BI analysts believe will have major long-term commercial impacts on industrial competitiveness in the next 5 to 20 years. NGT is currently tracking six technologies: bioelectronics, self-repairing structural materials, carbon nanotubes, micro energy sources, affective computing, and optical data processing. For more information about NGT or Explorer, visit the Web site at http://www.sric-bi.com/Explorer/, or telephone: +1 650 859-4600; e-mail: info@sric-bi.com.

New Reports from Digital Futures
Home-Network Market Forecasts and Technology Roadmaps and Three Home-Network Business Models look at the adoption of home networks' promises for growth, even in a slumping economy, as more people work at home or embrace home-entertainment options. Though home networks will not necessarily revolutionize consumers' lifestyles or supercharge providers' earnings outlooks, many households will pay to obtain specific benefits or solve specific problems. Three strategies that focus on existing platforms in people's homes—PCs, video-game consoles, and set-top boxes for pay-TV services—are most likely to succeed. For more information about Digital Futures, visit the Web site at http://www.sric-bi.com/DF/ , or telephone: +1 650 859-4600; e-mail: info@sric-bi.com.



 Current Watch-List 

B-I-P's scanning and research processes identify areas on the periphery of your business's focus area that constitute potential opportunities or threats. The areas that we decide bear watching go on B-I-P's watch list of defining forces that are transforming the business environment. Current watch-list topics include:

• Knowledge Management
• Biotechnology
• Privacy/Security
• Wireless Technologies
• Speech Technologies
• Intellectual Property
• Pervasive Computing
• Corporate Social Intelligence
• The Attention Economy/
   The Experience Industry

The Bulletin will periodically highlight each defining force, listing related B-I-P publications.



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