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Scan Outlook, 2002–07 At the request of clients, this Scan departs from our usual format to examine trends in each of four major categories: management, technology, the political economy, and consumers. Our intent is to use a broader brush than we usually use in Scan to paint a picture of some of the trends that will shape the business environment at large during the next five years. The Management Agenda The business environment is nowhere near as manipulable or predictable as it used to be. Constantly changing markets and customer demands require adaptive and flexible organizational structures and processes that allow companies to learn their way into (and out of) markets, and business networks quickly. Strategic planning is evolving into contingency planning as the business environment continues to look more like a biological ecosystem than like a stable-state economy. Page 2. Technology Thresholds Advances occur within particular technology areas in a generally linear fashion. Synergies among these basic technologies are responsible for revolutionary advances in business processes and the exponential improvements we’ve historically seen in the industrialized world’s overall standard of living. During the next five years we’ll see incremental advances in building-block technologies involving wireless communications, data integration, human-computer interfaces, sensors, and collaboration systems. Synergies among these basic technologies will lead to longer-term advances in the areas of pervasive computing, biotechnology, and robotics. Page 5. Transformation of Political Economy Uncertainty rules as the new century begins. The dot-com debacle, the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks, the U.S. corporate-accounting scandals, and the summer 2002 stock market swoon have all contributed to extremely high levels of uncertainty in the business environment. Emerging from uncertain times ahead of the competition requires more than just a reactive retrenchment. Page 12. Consumers The maturation of the Boomer generation is one of the few certain developments that companies can count on for strategic planning. But consumers approaching retirement age these days are dramatically different from those retiring just five or ten years ago. This section also looks at the market fragmentation that’s occurring with the emergence of the attention economy. Page 15. |
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