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About This Report The advent of Internet publishing, advertising, and commerce has major implications for all print media—both good and bad. This report focuses on the most threatened of print media: newspapers. The U.S. newspaper industry in particular will likely see a significant though not life-threatening erosion in both circulation and advertising in the next ten years. At minimum, this erosion will lead to a small decline—5% to 10%—in demand for newsprint. In the worst-case scenario, the decline could be as high as 20%. In other developed nations—such as Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Japan—the threat is less serious. Growth in circulation, advertising, and newsprint consumption will be slight at best and likely flat because these markets are already mature. The best prospects for growth in newspapers and newsprint consumption are in the developing nations of Asia and Latin America, where markets are immature and use of Internet technologies is not yet widespread. The threat to U.S. newspapers is based on two factors. First, newspapers rely on advertising for revenue to an extent unparalleled elsewhere. And this advertising, especially classified ads, is highly vulnerable because the Internet is offering advertisers an increasing number of choices for reaching target audiences. The second factor is the rapid development of the Internet economy itself, which offers choices not only to advertisers but also to newspaper readers. Newspaper readership is already in decline because of both declining literacy and increasing media choice. The easy access to real-time news and information offered by the Internet only adds to increasing distractions to newspaper reading. The report's first two pages provide a brief summary of the threat to newspapers and newsprint. The section following is an overview of potential impacts on print media from developments in digital media. The main body of the report is a case study of U.S. newspapers that illustrates the threat to this industry in detail, followed by a five-year forecast as well as two ten-year scenarios. The final two sections discuss the outlook outside the United States and implications for other print media that follow from our analysis of newspapers. We welcome feedback about this report and the program, and we encourage you to contact us with any questions or suggestions. For more information, please contact Michael Gold at telephone:
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