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The Future of eLearning Content October 1999 Authors: Jørgen Andre Nilsen, Eilif Trondsen Contributors:  Rob Edmonds Kermit M. Patton Greger V. Teigre Kent Vickery About This Report Table of Contents   Download the full report (pdf) About This Report The technologies and eager market that have created a boom in electronic commerce (eCommerce) are filtering into the once-staid learning industry. In the next five years, technology-enabled learning, or eLearning, could sweep through the industry, creating a chain reaction of change that affects the way people learn at work, at home, and at school. However, eLearning can reach its potential only if an ample amount of high-quality learning content is available at the right price--and if users see clear results. So far, most content follows traditional course formats, but the industry is entering a period of experimentation as content providers try to zero in on the approaches that best fit the new Internet-based technologies and learners' needs. Clearly, customization to individual differences in learning and to company-specific training needs will be critical in the new world of eLearning content. Wisdom in selecting the right delivery channel and innovative ways of incorporating interactivity and multimedia capabilities will also separate the winners from the losers. We welcome feedback about this report and the program, and we encourage you to contact us with any questions or suggestions. For more information, contact Eilif Trondsen, director, Learning-on-Demand (LoD) Program; telephone: +1 650 859 2665; fax: +1 650 859 5444; e-mail: etrondsen@sric-bi.com. We appreciate your support of our program and look forward to working closely with you as a Learning-on-Demand sponsor. Table of Contents Executive Summary 1   Market Forces in eLearning Content 1   Changes in Learning Content 1   The Challenges 2   Signs of the Future 4 The Emerging Content Industry 5   The Arrival of eLearning 5   Key Drivers and Developments 10 Changes in Learning Content 14   Content Domains 15     Hard Skills: The Primary Market for eLearning Content 15     Soft Skills: Strong Growth Ahead 17   New Learning Methods 19     Formal Learning 19     Informal Learning 21   Content Packaging: Right-Size Learning Modules 23   Implications for Vendors 25 The Future of Content Creation 26   Market Challenges 28   Authoring Tools 29   Cost Issues 31   Standards 35     The Challenges of Standardization 35     Selected Web-Wide Metastandard Initiatives 36 Future of Content Delivery 39   Learning Hardware 41     Personal Digital Assistants 41     Electronic Books 41     Electronic Pens 42     Portable Digital Players 43   Delivery Media 43     Offline Delivery Media 43     Online Delivery Media 43   Learning Software 44     Video and Multimedia 44     Audio 44   Services 45 Markets and Business Models 45   Emerging eLearning Markets 46     Workplace 47     Schools and Universities 50     Home 50   eLearning Products and Services 52     A Scenario Perspective 52     Implications for eLearning Content 54   New Business Models 54     Sponsored Content 57     Syndication 57     Subscription 58     Payment per Course or Learning Module 59   Content Rights and IP Issues 60 Content Players and New Roles 60   Learning Portals 62   Universities 64   Corporate Universities 66   Learning Networks 67   Publishing Houses 68   Knowledge Brokers 69   Media 69   Knowledge Conglomerates 70   Independent Developers 71   Tables Content Developments and Uncertainties 7 New and Old Learning Methods 14 Selected Vendors of Hard-Skill eLearning Content 16 Types of Learning Modules 24 Macromedia and Asymetrix Authoring Tools 30 Factors Affecting Cost of eLearning Content 32 eLearning Costs and Media Choice 33 Resource Requirements for Live Online Learning and Web-Based Training 33 Nonproduction Costs of eLearning 34 Working Groups of the Learning Technology Standards Committee 38 Workplace Developments and Learning-Content Implications 48 Web Sites with Learning-Related Content for Children 51 Subscription-Based Learning-Content Providers 59 Pay-per-Course Vendors 59 Selected Learning Portals 62 Types of Virtual Universities 64 Opportunities and Challenges for Virtual Universities 65 Types of Learning Networks 67   Figures Learning Content: Selected Issues and Dynamics 6 The Need to Cross the Chasm 9 Perspectives on the Future of Bandwidth 11 Formal and Informal Learning 20 A Cost Framework for eLearning Content 27 Potential Standards-Development Process 37 MetaView of the Marketplace 46 Content Delivery via Enterprise Portal 49 Personal Learning Management Service 53 Content Channels 56 NTUC's Syndication Model 58 Learning-Industry Conglomeration 70   Boxes Learning Content for the New Digital Generation 9 Young Web Users: Reshaping Consumer Demands 15 Soft-Skill Players 18 Examples of Modular Content Use 24 Extensible Markup Language 26 New Tools for Knowledge Workers 40 Hungry Minds: Catering to Adults' Education Needs and Preferences 63 Arthur D. Little School of Management 67 ToExcel.com 68

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