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In this issue:

  * DF Scan
  * Nanobiotechnology in the Life Sciences
  * New Speech Technologies
  * Lessons from Explorer
  * Broadband Wireless Access
  * Prospects for Auxiliary-Power-Unit Fuel Cells in Vehicles
  * The Battle against Spam
  * eLearning Experiences in Financial-Services Companies
  * Microminiature Wireless Sensors
  * Signals of Change
  * Markets for Digital Products and Services
  * New Metrics of Corporate Performance
  * Survey of Wireless Standards
  * Presentations by SRIC-BI Staff


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(Full text of SRIC-BI publications is available to
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---------------------
 Recent Publications
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DF Scan

The inaugural issue of DF Scan, an online publication from 
SRIC-BI's Digital Futures program, discusses signals of 
change in the digital arena. One article discusses what 
mobile services might emerge as governments in the United 
States, China, Japan, and the United Kingdom move toward 
digital terrestrial broadcasting. A second article points 
to new roles for TV sets beyond channel surfing, games, 
and home videos. (Digital Futures Scan #1)
http://www.sric-bi.com/DF/DFscanSums/DFscanSum01.shtml


Nanobiotechnology in the Life Sciences

Combining nanotechnology with biotechnology promises to 
improve research tools and processes in the life sciences. 
Currently, such improvements focus on research 
instrumentation and process capabilities, but the future 
could bring biology-based approaches to technology 
development and fabrication, such as molecular-scale tools 
for medical applications. No one can agree on the timing 
of such developments, however. (Nanobiotechnology Research 
and Commercial Applications in the Life Sciences)
http://www.sric-bi.com/Scan/ScanMonthly/SM005.shtml#D03-2435


New Speech Technologies

Speech mining and speech-to-speech translation have great 
market potential, with promise to affect virtually every 
industry. Both technologies are just beginning to leave the 
laboratory, with early commercial applications serving only 
well-defined application areas. Moreover, despite good 
long-term prospects, uneven reliability and other 
shortcomings mean that mass-market penetration is unlikely 
anytime soon. (Speech-Mining and Translation Technologies: 
Looking for Traction in the Marketplace)
http://www.sric-bi.com/Scan/ScanMonthly/SM005.shtml#D03-2434


Lessons from Explorer

With more than 20 years' experience monitoring emerging 
technologies, SRIC-BI's Explorer service has learned that 
technologies follow natural evolutionary cycles that defy 
media hype and often survive subsequent disappointments. 
Moreover, though planners need to view early hype with 
skepticism, they still need to invest enough to evaluate 
emerging technologies and gauge the true development cycle. 
(Ten Lessons in Technology Development from Explorer)
http://www.sric-bi.com/Scan/ScanMonthly/SM005.shtml#D03-2437


Broadband Wireless Access

Wireline technologies dominate the market for broadband 
Internet access, and wireless channels have so far had 
little success in delivering broadband Internet to fixed 
sites. Nonetheless, wireless broadband technologies have 
upside market potential, at the very least to provide 
services to millions of homes and businesses that lack 
wireline solutions. Moreover, deployment of wireless 
technologies does not require the massive construction 
projects that are necessary to build wireline facilities. 
(Broadband Wireless Access in the Last Mile)
http://www.sric-bi.com/DF/summaries/BrdbndWireless0603.shtml


Prospects for Auxiliary-Power-Unit Fuel Cells in Vehicles

Although companies are demonstrating fuel cells for 
propulsion, issues such as costs, infrastructure 
development, and safety concerns are likely to delay the 
emergence of fuel-cell-powered cars for many years. More 
likely, the first commercial use of fuel cells in 
vehicles will be for auxiliary-power applications such as 
power windows or onboard communications. (July 2003 Fuel 
Cells Viewpoints)
http://www.sric-bi.com/Explorer/FC.shtml


The Battle against Spam

A recent estimate suggests that Internet users worldwide 
currently receive more than 13 billion unwanted e-mail 
messages each day. This epidemic of spam is a concern for 
online retailers as well as customers. Researchers are 
working on a range of filters to protect inboxes from 
unwanted e-mail, some of which work at the core of the 
Internet on central servers and some of which work at its 
edge. None of these solutions are perfect, however. 
(July 2003 Internet Commerce Viewpoints)
http://www.sric-bi.com/Explorer/IC.shtml


eLearning Experiences in Financial-Services Companies

In the financial-services industry, innovative learning 
and training solutions are essential to keep pace with 
the dramatic changes in this knowledge-intensive business. 
A recent report from the Learning-on-Demand Program 
presents case studies of six progressive banking, insurance, 
and securities companies that are looking beyond traditional 
methods to the special requirements of Web-based delivery of 
learning and training. (eLearning in Financial Services: 
A Case-Based Analysis)
http://www.sric-bi.com/LoD/summaries/eLearnFinSvcs2003-06.shtml


Microminiature Wireless Sensors

In June, engineers at the University of California, 
Berkeley, announced successful testing of an extremely 
small wireless sensor on a single chip for use in large 
networked deployments. The chip, Spec, integrates sensors 
and transmitters on a single chip platform of just 5 square 
millimeters. The researchers expect Spec to become the 
brains behind a new generation of ultratiny wireless 
sensors--motes--for a variety of industrial, consumer, and 
military applications. (July 2003 Pervasive Computing 
Viewpoints)
http://www.sric-bi.com/Explorer/PVC.shtml


Signals of Change

With constant exposure to information technology, young 
people constantly shift their behavior, and researchers 
are only beginning to plumb the types and meaning of these 
behaviors. This topic is one of several signals of change 
in the July 2003 issue of Scan Monthly. Other items focus 
on fast mass analysis of variables, machines that measure 
physiological traits with links to emotion, and reticence 
in the market for swarm intelligence. (Scan Monthly, 
July 2003)
http://www.sric-bi.com/Scan/ScanMonthly/SM005.shtml#SoCs


Markets for Digital Products and Services

A recent report from the Digital Futures program presents 
numerical forecasts of the home, office, and mobile 
markets for digital products and services between 2004 
and 2006. The report backs up these market statistics 
with a look at customers' and vendors' motives and finds 
reasons for optimism in real-world supply and demand 
factors, eschewing the type of hyperbole that fueled the 
late 1990s bubble. (Digital Futures Forecast 2003)
http://www.sric-bi.com/DF/summaries/DFForecast0703.shtml


New Metrics of Corporate Performance

The recent bankruptcies of Enron, WorldCom, and others 
have highlighted the limitations of the generally accepted 
accounting principles, the standard for reporting company 
performance in the United States. As a result, metrics 
that focus on broader measures of corporate performance 
are receiving increasing attention, offering possibilities 
to boost investor confidence and provide a new source of 
competitive advantage. (Benchmarking Corporate Performance: 
Emerging Tools and Metrics)
http://www.sric-bi.com/Scan/ScanMonthly/SM005.shtml#D03-2436


Survey of Wireless Standards

To stimulate discussion about emerging applications for 
wireless technologies, SRIC-BI's Digital Futures 
program has prepared a survey of the 802.xx wireless 
standards now vying for acceptance. The report, which 
is free to the public, looks at the status of selected 
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers 
standards for wireless local-area networks, personal-area 
networks, and metropolitan-area networks. (Survey of 
Selected 802.xx Wireless Standards)
http://www.sric-bi.com/DF/free/2003-08-08.shtml



--------------------------------
 Presentations by SRIC-BI Staff
--------------------------------

Scenario Planning: An Essential Tool for Strategists

Hundreds of companies have used SRIC-BI's scenario-
planning process to identify new threats and 
opportunities and make strategy decisions in the face 
of change and uncertainty. Bill Ralston, leader of 
SRIC-BI's scenario-planning practice, recently led a 
tutorial session on the ever-evolving 30-year-old 
process at O'Reilly's advanced technology conference 
in California. Slides of the session are available at 
http://www.sric-bi.com/consulting/briefings.shtml.
(Using Scenarios to Make Better IT Business Decisions)


Fuel-Cell Briefing

On 30 July 2003, Barbara Heydorn, senior consultant and 
an analyst for SRIC-BI's Explorer service, spoke at a 
joint meeting of TiE Silicon Valley and the Institute for 
the Analysis of Global Security. Her topic was Fuel Cells: 
What Are They and Why Are They Getting So Much Attention?
http://www.sric-bi.com/news.shtml


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